Chronostratigraphy and lake-level changes of Laguna Cari-Laufquén, Río Negro, Argentina     

Alyson Cartwright  Jay Quade  Scott Stine  Kenneth D. Adams  Wallace Broecker  Hai Cheng 《Quaternary Research》2011,76(3):430-440

Evidence from shoreline and deep-lake sediments show Laguna Cari-Laufquén, located at 41°S in central Argentina, rose and fell repeatedly during the late Quaternary. Our results show that a deep (> 38 m above modern lake level) lake persisted from no later than 28 ka to 19 ka, with the deepest lake phase from 27 to 22 ka. No evidence of highstands is found after 19 ka until the lake rose briefly in the last millennia to 12 m above the modern lake, before regressing to present levels. Laguna Cari-Laufquén broadly matches other regional records in showing last glacial maximum (LGM) highstands, but contrasts with sub-tropical lake records in South America where the hydrologic maximum occurred during deglaciation (17–10 ka). Our lake record from Cari-Laufquén mimics that of high-latitude records from the Northern Hemisphere. This points to a common cause for lake expansions, likely involving some combination of temperature depression and intensification of storminess in the westerlies belt of both hemispheres during the LGM.  相似文献   

A neurocomputing approach to the forecasting of monthly maximum temperature over Kolkata, India using total ozone concentration as predictor     

Syam Sundar De  Goutami Chattopadhyay  Bijoy Bandyopadhyay  Suman Paul 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2011,343(10):664-676

The association between the monthly total ozone concentration and monthly maximum temperature over Kolkata (22.56° N, 88.30° E), India, has been explored in this paper. For this, the predictability of monthly maximum temperature based on the total ozone as predictor is investigated using Artificial Neural Network. The presence of persistence and similar cyclic patterns are revealed through autocorrelation and cross-correlation coefficients. Common cycles of length 12 and 6 have been identified through periodogram. Hence, a predictive model has been generated by Artificial Neural Network in the form of Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) using scaled conjugate gradient learning with sigmoid non-linearity. After training and testing the network, an MLP with total ozone of month n as predictor and maximum temperature of month (n + 1) as the target output is found as the best model. Performance of the model has been judged statistically. Finally, the MLP model has been compared with linear and non-linear regressions and the efficiency of MLP has been established over the regression models.  相似文献   

A statistical analysis of typhoon frequency and application in design wave height   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

WANG Liping  ZHANG Jianfang  LI Yongping  ZHANG Yufang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2011,30(4):24-32

A typhoon leading is an important natural disaster to many disasters to China. A giant wave caused by it has brought large threat for an offshore project. Based on the maximum entropy principle,one new model which has 4 undetermined parameters is constructed,which is called the discrete maximum entropy probabilistic model. In practical applications,the design wave height is considered as soon as possible in a typhoon affected sea areas,the result fits the observed data well. Further more this model does not have the priority compared with other distributions as Poisson distribution. The model provides a theoretical basis for the engineering design more reasonable when considering typhoon factors comprehensively.  相似文献   

基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈子燊  刘曾美  路剑飞  于吉涛 《热带海洋学报》2011,(3)

简介了广义极值分布函数及其3种参数估计方法,包括极大似然(ML)、线性矩(LM)和间隔最大积(MPS)估计的计算方法。使用广义极值分布函数推算了北部湾涠洲岛海域3个波向的年波高极值序列设计波高,并与Weibull分布、Gumbel分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的推算结果加以对比。分析表明,涠洲岛海域极值波高服从于广义极值Ⅲ型分布,拟合优度检验结果表明广义极值分布能更好地拟合极值波高;MPS方法是一种优良的参数估计法,推算的设计波高可作为海岸环境工程设计的首要参考值。  相似文献   

具梯度项的次线性椭圆型方程解的分析     

杨春娜  王建 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,(Z2):197-201

本文研究了1类具梯度项的次线性椭圆型方程大解和完全有界解的存在性问题。运用上下解方法和极值原理分别得到了Rn上方程存在完全大解的充分必要条件和存在完全有界解的充分条件,并且证明了该方程在Rn中光滑有界区域Ω上不存在大解。  相似文献   

黑龙江流域洪峰水位特征分析     

董淑华  姜雪  邢贞相  张玉国 《水文》2015,35(3):74-77

黑龙江流域地跨中、俄、蒙三国,沿岸地区洪水灾害频繁,在一定程度上制约了当地国民经济的发展。因此,有必要对流域的洪峰水位变化特征进行分析,为流域水资源管理提供可靠依据。结合SPSS对相邻两站的洪峰水位进行相关分析,相邻两水位站的相关系数均较大,成极显著相关,且有非常显著的统计学意义。经回归分析得出相邻两站间洪峰水位均成线性关系,且不包含常数项。降水量对洪峰水位影响分析表明,最大洪峰雨量的影响最为显著,其次是汛期雨量,相关关系最不显著的是年降水量。  相似文献   

独立分量分析改进的图像去噪方法     

杨信能  朱宝山 《测绘科学》2015,40(3):132-134

针对传统去噪算法在复杂噪声污染图像处理中能力较弱的问题,该文基于信号高阶统计量的独立分量分析,通过其自适应变换,分离出源信号中的统计独立的分量,在分析对比传统图像去噪方法的基础上,讨论了独立分量分析的基本模型及原理;提出了一种结合中值滤波与wiener滤波的最大似然估计的图像去噪改进方法。仿真实验表明改进的独立分量分析去噪方法具有较大的优越性。  相似文献   

Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga)     

Zhang  Kui  Liu  Qun  Kalhoro  Muhsan Ali 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2015,14(3):557-563

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort(CPUE) data(1975–2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore(Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises(CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. α is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield(MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.  相似文献   

长江口外浮游植物死亡释放溶解有机质的降解及其溶氧消耗   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

高小丰  吴莹  朱卓毅 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(5):1010-1017

浮游植物光合作用产生的溶解有机质(dissolved organic matter,DOM)是海洋中溶解有机质的重要来源,浮游植物死亡后释放的新鲜溶解有机质活性高、数量大、生物可利用性高,其降解过程中对溶解氧(dissolved oxygen,DO)的消耗显著。但到目前为止,对此类溶解有机质的降解过程以及其耗氧情况还鲜有研究。本文基于2013年8月东海航次,对浮游植物(硅藻为主)死亡后释放的新鲜有机质进行人工受控培养,研究其降解过程及对DO的消耗,并评估该降解过程对低氧现象形成的贡献。研究发现:培养体系中溶解有机碳(dissolved organic carbon,DOC)和DO浓度皆随时间呈指数下降,总溶解态碳水化合物(total carbohydrate,TCHO)也出现明显降解;体系的初始DOC浓度越高,降解速率常数k(DOC)、k(DO)越大,k(DOC)受DOC浓度、活性以及DO浓度的影响;培养过程中细菌丰度明显增加,添加Hg Cl2的对比实验表明细菌在降解过程中起到重要作用。本文的研究结果表明,浮游植物死亡后释放的溶解有机质的快速降解及其对溶解氧的消耗,对长江口低氧环境的促成具有重要意义。  相似文献   

在Zebiak-Cane模式中观测MJO强迫对ENSO可预报性的影响, 第1部分:对最大预报误差的影响     

PENG Yuehu  SONG Junqiang  XIANG Jie  SUN Chengzhi 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(5):39-45

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Ni(n)o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The obs...  相似文献